December fishing in the Tampa Bay area is all about timing cold fronts, managing water temperature swings, and planning trips around extreme low tides. Water temperatures have been volatile, with fronts pushing temps into the low 60s and warming trends bringing them back into the 70s. The most consistent action continues to fall on day two or three after a front, once fish have had time to acclimate and weather patterns stabilize. Instead of forcing a trip immediately after a front, plan around that stabilization window for better results.
How to plan your best days
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Track water temperature, not just air temperature.
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Expect fish to be less cooperative immediately after a front—wait for conditions to level out.
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Look for improving winds and steady barometric pressure on days two and three.
Redfish: use winter low tides to your advantage
Winter is prime time for redfish on the flats, thanks to cleaner water and consistently lower tides. The most productive lows align with the new and full moon, and during the winter solstice period these tides can be extremely negative.
Low-tide strategy
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Target open flats, potholes, depressions, and subtle contour changes.
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Low water pulls fish out of high-tide mangrove zones and concentrates them in predictable staging areas.
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Treat low tide as your best opportunity to locate and identify fish, not just to make blind casts.
Incoming-tide strategy
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As water rises, redfish begin moving back toward shoreline edges, mangroves, and higher grass.
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Position ahead of that movement and fish the transition zones rather than chasing fish into flooded cover.
Match your presentations to temperature changes
Bait is still present on the flats, but sharp temperature drops and warming trends influence how fish feed and what they respond to. When the water cools significantly, redfish and trout often shift away from fast-moving baitfish and key in on slower, bottom-oriented forage. Adjusting fly and lure selection to match that shift is critical.
Fly choices that keep producing
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EP/Puglisi-style patterns and Congo Hair baitfish
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Clousers and Half-and-Halfs
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Shrimp and crab patterns on colder days
Artificial lures that keep producing
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NLBN 4” Mullet
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Soft plastic jerkbaits
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Z-Man 2.5” shrimp imitations during colder conditions
December takeaway
Consistency in December comes from planning, patience, and precision:
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Target day two or three after cold fronts
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Fish new and full moon low tides, especially during the winter solstice
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Use low water to find fish, then adjust as water rises
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Modify fly and lure choices as water temperatures change, not just based on what bait you see
